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Number of new migrant workers falls 15%
July 2008
UK Less attractive to east Europeans – Job prospects at home improve
The number of eastern and central European migrants applying to work in the UK has fallen to the lowest level for three years as a declining pound and improved job prospects at home have made working in Britain less attractive.
Numbers registered to work by the Home Office fell by almost 15 per cent to just fewer than 43,000 on the first three months of this year compared with the same period in 2007, according to official figures published yesterday.
It was the fourth quarter in succession that worker registrations from the so-called A8 countries, which joined the European Union in 2004 had experienced a year on year decline.
The figure for March slowed to just 12,000 – fewer than half the peak monthly figure of 25,000 in October 2006.
The figures disclose only inflows of registered workers and do not reveal how many have returned home after working only a short time in the UK.
Some 845,000 eastern and central Europeans have been approved to work in the UK in the past four years. The Institute for Public Policy Research, the think-tank, last month calculated that about half of the 1m migrant workers estimated to have come to Britain since its opened its borders to the A8 had now returned home.
“Employers can no longer take for granted the availability of a steady supply of willing and eager workers from Poland and other less developed EU states,” said John Philpott, chief economist at the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development.
“On the other hand a slowdown could be beneficial if the UK jobs market is set to become weaker.”
Official figures published last week revealed that the number of people claiming unemployment benefit had risen for the third month in a row.
“If there are going to be fewer migrants competing for jobs, then growth in unemployment should be lower than it would otherwise be.” Said Mr Philpott.
The availability of large numbers of migrant workers has been identified by the Bank of England’s interest rate setting monetary policy committee as one of the reasons why wages have not risen faster in what still remains a tight jobs market.
The largest influx has been from Poland, which has overtaken India as the biggest source of new migrants. Poles account for just more than two-thirds of all worker registrations from the A8. The number of Poles registering fell by 20% in the first three months of this year compared with the same period in 2007.
More than 80% of A8 nationals registering for work since May 2004 were aged between 18 and 34, while 93% reported they had no dependents living with them, said the Home Office.
Ministers concerned about a backlash against large numbers of migrant workers moving to Britain opted last year to block free access to jobs for Bulgarian and Romanian citizens when their countries joined the EU. The government is introducing a points system to make it harder for unskilled, non-EU citizens to get work in the UK.
Separate figures from the Home Office reported a 7% rise last year in the number of foreign nationals grated British citizenship. The number of asylum applications also rose by 16% in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period last year.
Short-term figure revised upward
Government statisticians have revised upwards the number of short-term migrants in the UK. The main figures count only those coming to the country for at least 12 months, excluding those who come for shorter periods, such as students, au pairs, and other workers, writes Simon Briscoe.
The first attempt by the Office for National Statistics to estimate short-term migration for 2005 published last October, met with criticism and was yesterday revised up from 205,000 to 259,000. Of these, the number staying for work or study fro three months or more was revised from 43,000 to 67,000, a figure still seen by some analysts as low.
The size of the revision is an embarrassment to the ONS, which is keen to demonstrate that it is in control of population and migration figures.
The ONS also sought to draw a line under an argument over figures suggesting that all the net new vacancies created in the economy over the previous two years had been filled by foreign workers.
Latest figures show the number of British-born workers fell in 2006 and 2007, but is now increasing.
Source: Andrew Taylor – Financial Times 21 May 2008
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